Comments on: Think Again: ‘Britain is not European’

By: James Rogers

James Rogers — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:32:47 +0000

Of course…

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By: Polprav

Polprav — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 12:24:43 +0000

Hello from Russia!

Can I quote a post in your blog with the link to you?

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By: Robert

Robert — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 20:50:17 +0000

I think that a future conservative government would be insane to put a question-mark over the UK’s membership of the EU. In the aftermath of a financial crisis, it would be lunacy to risk a run on the pound and a stop to – perhaps even a reversal of – inward investment. They would also come under pressure from the US to stay in. I therefore wonder whether it might not be in the best interests of the EU as a whole for the other Member States to get in first by asking the UK government what it’s intentions are while pointing out that Lisbon provides for a procedure for leaving.

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By: Ralf Grahn

Ralf Grahn — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:37:56 +0000

French Derek,

We don’t know what the Tory leadership is going to come up with, when the pretence of waiting for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty ends.

Some sort of repatriation demand seems to be on the cards (employment, social, justice; what else?), although the UK has four major opt-outs from the Lisbon Treaty.

My inkling is that the other member states would not be accommodating, even if Open Europe has proposed a third way (between outright withdrawal and customary obstruction?) by using Britain’s veto to prevent a deal on the (long term) budget.

But treaty changes require unanimity too, and I wonder if Cameron and Hague would succeed. That is a political question.

If they had a previous renationalisation referendum to add pressure against the rest of the EU, failure to achieve their targets might leave them with no alternative but secession.

It is quite possible that the Conservative leadership has set a process in motion which may satisfy their members, but hardly a responsible government.

Naturally, they have to hail it as a victory, whatever they end up with, but I can hardly believe that the Tory government would be happy to lose their Council and EP votes plus Commission representation (including recruitment) as well as their precious veto card.

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By: french derek

french derek — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:56:16 +0000

James: I understand the Telegraph ran a series recently on the EU, and that the overall flavour seemed to be more positive than negative. But as I haven’t seen any of this my informant may be trying to misled me.

Sebastian, as you say, if everyone else has signed up to Lisbon before the UK election, then it is a “done deal”. The only prospect then on the table for Cameron would appear to be to seek some renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU (given what you say about Tory poll results). Quite how he would approach this -whether it is feasible even – would need someone with considerable knowledge of EU/international law (Ralf?).

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By: James Rogers

James Rogers — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:14:30 +0000

Sebastian: It is hard to work out precisely what the motivations behind Tory party policy on the European Union actually are. The traditional Conservative media seem divided: The Sun and the Daily Mail spew old-fashioned and haughty British Europhobia. The Telegraph seems to believe that Britain is, and will remain, a major global power in its own right. And various sections of Tory opinion seem more enamoured with the United States than their own country or culture. This adds up to a poisonous brew of reactionary sentiment, often divorced from reality. It is also anti-British, in the sense that it is and will continue to damage the British national interest.

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By: Sebastian

Sebastian — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:56:36 +0000

It does seem that Cameron is becoming less confrontational now that the Irish referendum is over and the Czech president seems to be preparing to sign the treaty. However, polls show that almost 90% of the Tories think there should be a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty even if it has been ratified when (and if) they get into power. On the other hand, a minority wants to withdraw from the EU. What puzzles me about this approach is the following: Say they have a referendum and, as it is widely assumed, Britain votes NO. What then? Lisbon treaty will, at that point, be the treaty establishing the EU. Is repealing the Lisbon Treaty not then the same as seceding? What do they hope to achieve?

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By: Ralf Grahn

Ralf Grahn — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:19:12 +0000

French Derek: I agree that a constructive UK would be a great asset for Europe and that it would be in the interests of Britain to play an important, even leading, role, but as late as today I looked at the prospects with regard to Conservative activists and William Hague (on my blog), and the conclusions are sad as well as stark:

Britain is heading for a course which will harm itself and Europe.

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By: French Derek

French Derek — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:23:06 +0000

Ahem, can I butt in please guys? Please remember Clausewitz’s famous warning that ‘any strategy holds good until the first contact with the enemy’ (or something like that). It could well be that, once in office, Messrs Cameron, Haig, Liam Fox, et al., may find themselves having to be more ‘realistic’ – i.e. having to recognise the truth.

The truth, as James noted, is that the United Kingdom needs the European Union and the European Union needs the United Kingdom. Also, Lisbon may not be the best solution but it is a lot better than what we have at present in the organisation of the European Union.

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By: James Rogers

James Rogers — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:53:07 +0000

Ralf: I plan to write about the need for a new European raison d’etre in the future…

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