Putting Germany in the jungle

Published on by James Rogers

Last year, after the Greek bail out, Germany was accused of a haughty, arrogant demeanour. It hectored profligate southern European Union Member States for their spendthrift and unrestrained ways. As the European Union’s leading industrial power, and a relatively careful spender, the Germans responded: if the European Union and Monetary Union are to survive, the spenders need to buckle-up and take the medicine, even if tastes foul. And Berlin had an important point: why should German workers work harder and longer so that their southern neighbours could live a life of luxury and retire early?

However, if some Europeans feared an arrogant Germany during the financial crisis – a view that was rather unfair on the Germans, insofar as their actions helped to get the European Union back on the tracks – Berlin’s unwillingness to support Britain and France in their pursuit of a no-fly-zone over Libya smacks of selfishness. After the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on Friday, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, stated her objections to the British-French proposal:

We have to think this through. Why should we intervene in Libya when we don’t intervene elsewhere?

For two reasons, her statement is disturbing: firstly, Germany wants to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, alongside its European colleagues, Britain and France. Having a permanent seat on the Security Council, however – at least from a European and American perspective – depends on a willingness to share responsibility for the maintenance of a world order that supports European and American preferences. Given that Germany lacks the military capabilities and strategic culture necessary for such a role, what could it bring to the table? Indeed, Angela Merkel and her foreign secretary, Guido Westerwelle – who has said he favours only political sanctions against Tripoli – have shied away from supporting an aerial exclusion zone precisely because they fear that the Bundeswehr might be called upon to help do the aerial policing.

Secondly, Libya is not just another country ‘elsewhere’; it is a country in the European neighbourhood, just a stone’s throw from several European Union Member States, not least Malta, Greece and Italy. It is a major European energy supplier and is also close to British and French military communication lines, which stretch out east along the Mediterranean and then south down into the Red Sea, the Middle East, East Africa and Indian Ocean. Instability in Libya – let alone the emergence of a new pariah state on the European Union’s border – would be very dangerous, making Europeans more dependent on Russian oil and gas. Germany may feel safe cocooned in the heart of postmodern Europe, with its ‘special relationship’ with Moscow, but it must not ignore the plight of its neighbours, or what goes on beyond the common European frontier.

This is not about ‘Germany-bashing’: the Germans have, in so many ways, been the ultimate engine of European integration, providing a near-untapped flow of money to pay for the development of other parts of the continent. German technological ingenuity and industrial might have kept the European Union afloat at the very apex of the global economy. However, whereas German economic leadership should be welcomed, Berlin’s strategic input must be questioned – at least in its current incarnation. Apart from the fact that Germany’s military is still weak and ineffective, Berlin remains mesmerised by a insular and almost anti-strategic worldview, predicated on illusions like ‘soft power’ and ‘civilian power’. Germany has no aircraft carriers and no overseas military stations: the pre-requisites for maintaining a worldwide balance of power that favours open trade and democratic interests (on which the German economy depends). Indeed, since the end of the Cold War, rather than helping to provide it, Germany has become increasingly content to consume security, safe in the knowledge that it can shelter under the protective blister provided by Britain, France and the United States – of which it is often critical.

Of course, that probably suits the British, French and Americans as much as it suits the Germans: the former three get to set the political agenda, while Germany pursues economic development unhindered and largely shielded off from the dangers and chaos outside. This is not good: German power is needed. After all, the British and the French, in particular, are in relative decline and the United States has other interests; only by sticking together through the European Union are London, Paris and Berlin likely to remain relevant as the twenty-first century rolls on. But there is a problem: German strategic culture is trapped in a timewarp, more befitting of the early 1990s, than today. In this sense, the words of Robert Cooper, made nearly fifteen years ago, could not ring out any louder:

For the postmodern state [i.e. Germany, Spain, Italy, Sweden – even Britain and France to some extent], there is [...] a difficulty. We need to get used to the idea of double standards. Among ourselves, we operate on the basis of laws and open cooperative security [i.e. ‘civilian power’]. But when dealing with more old-fashioned kinds of state, we need to revert to the rougher methods of an earlier era – force, pre-emptive attack, deception, whatever is necessary for those who still live in the nineteenth century world of every state for itself.

Advice to postmodern states: those who have friendly, law abiding neighbours should not forget that in other parts of the world the law of the jungle reigns. Among ourselves, we keep the law but when we are operating in the jungle, we also must use the laws of the jungle. In the coming period of peace in Europe, there will be a temptation to neglect our defences, both physical and psychological. This represents one of the great dangers for the postmodern state.

What, then, is the message to Germany? Berlin: London and Paris actually need your assistance; but in order to provide that help, it is time to accept a proper strategic culture. Mrs. Merkel: Libya is part of the jungle; the jungle surrounds the European Union; and if you do not get to grips with the jungle, the jungle will get to grips with you. And Mr. Westerwelle: ‘civilian power’ will not work in the jungle, at least not before the jungle has been tamed. Before you can cultivate the jungle, you need to push back the dangers and chaos that lurk – like a crime – within. To do that, you must dispatch your warriors to cower and slaughter the beasts and send out your pioneers to fell the thicket. Then you can start cultivating and building: not a moment before; not a moment until.



11 Responses to Putting Germany in the jungle

  1. avatar Syd Morgan says:

    I’m not sure this is a particularly ‘German’ problem though. These failing strategic ideas are spread throughout Europe. Our power – soft, smart or military – is not configured for our continent’s benefit.

    To allow the Gaddafi dictatorship to crush a democratic, pluralistic movement is utter folly. He will now revert to type and his opposition, mostly young people, is now open to religious fundamentalism as, potentially the only way to their salvation. As you say, these are our neighbours. It ain’t called the Middle Sea for nothing. Not sure what you’d call it – Eurabia? – but European and Arab inter-dependence has been fundamental to the history of the world. It’s as real today as it was millennia ago, not least the issue of migration. I think it’s called inter-dependence.

    Yet, at this time of crisis and opportunity, EU and NATO military force is focussed in west-central Asia. Was there no contingency planning for political change in the ‘Middle East’. Was it assumed democracy next door was never on the agenda? Of course, washing our hands of Libya is mirrored by similar stupidity in the Persian Gulf states where we seem to be prepared to countenance an intra-Muslim civil war!

    My bottom line is this: Europe needs to act united in its own interest and not be tied to what is in reality reactionary US policies. The latter – despite some efforts at change, I must admit – is merely policing the Sykes-Picot states. Europe should support the Arab people.

  2. avatar James Rogers says:

    Syd Morgan: Yes, this is certainly a wider problem than merely a German one. But at the same time, it is more important in the way that it prevents Berlin – rather than the other smaller Member States – from acting more robustly, not least because Germany is one of the so-called ‘Big Three’. If Germany was singing from the same strategic hymn-sheet as Britain and France, things would be so much easier. Berlin would no longer serve as a shelter for those other insularly-minded Member States to hide behind.

  3. avatar Jedibeeftrix says:

    For two reasons, her statement is disturbing: firstly, Germany wants to become a permanent member of the UNSC. Having a permanent seat on the SC, however depends on a willingness to share responsibility for the maintenance of world order.

    Very much agreed James.

  4. avatar Gordon says:

    Leaving the economic considerations aside, which are indeed of complex nature, and focussing only on the military position Germany took in light of Libya, I have to say that I wholeheartedly agree.

    In my view, and I understand that personal mileage may vary, the strictest standards should apply. Therefore the role of the Bundeswehr should be limited to self-defence or to fulfil NATO obligations (attacks on member states, e.g. United States/Afghanistan).

    Should international UN sanctioned military intervention occur, as in Libya, not falling in the above specified parameters, I would certainly agree to see the Bundeswehr working on the humanitarian side in a conflict and granting overflight rights. Anything beyond that, even in a logistical or supporting role (Awacs, use of bases for air strikes), would cause me great concern.

    Hence, I am in full support of the position the German government took with regard to abstaining from UN resolution 1973.

  5. avatar James Rogers says:

    Gordon: I’m afraid I must disagree with you. The point is that there is no such thing as the ‘strictest standards’ of ‘self-defence’. The armed forces are a tool of foreign policy, not some special thing that should be kept under lock and key and wheeled out only in the most severe of circumstances. Military power has an important role to play as a deterrent, to prohibit and prevent foreign powers from seeking to overturn the established order – which they do – especially when they do not adhere to constitutional standards.

  6. avatar Gordon says:

    James,

    Thank you for your reply and of course I expected (and respect) different views on this subject.

    See, in this world causes to fight and die for are a penny a pound (if others do the fighting and dying even cheaper). If you go through the list of countries, where (our) constitutional standards are violated, there is no stopping coming up with reasons for intervention. Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Somalia, Saudi, Gaza, China (if you consider human rights and freedom of expression) and a score of others

    I am neither a peacenic nor a Gaddafi fan, however, if one starts questioning the concept of sovereignty and internal affairs of nations (as bad or as different by our own expectations they may be) one starts walking a road without end.

    There are voices in Germany calling for increased military spending, which considering unemployment and GDP might even make sense, but a new ‘military complex’ might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you have the toys you tend to play with them while asking for even more and newer toys.

    In my opinion, and again personal mileage my vary, there is no such thing as a war-like endeavour. You declare it (for reasons of national security) and put all the economic power and resources in men and material of a nation behind it or you stay in the realm of diplomacy. Foreign intervention had always the smell of dishonest intentions (oil, influence, creed or money) in the eyes of others.

    Protecting civilians is an admirable and honest goal…what if the tide turns? Is anyone set up to protect Gaddafi supporting civilians? It’s not all black and white in that nation.

    Still friends?

  7. avatar James Rogers says:

    Gordon: Yes, there are many noble causes we could fight for. Unfortunately, we cannot be everywhere all at once. But this does not matter. Sometimes, particularly when a people is nearby, and in need, and when your unwillingness to act would damage your reputation and your power, you must make a stand. Imagine what might have happened in 1948 had the British and Americans decided to let West Berlin go in its hour of need; or had they withdrawn back into their shells. Europe would have become a very different place; not the decent, civilised region it is today.

    Equally, an increase in German military spending will not lead to a ‘military complex’; Germany spent a lot more during the Cold War and it managed to stay away from militarism. It simply needs to adapt to changing circumstances and take responsibility, or else it will close in on itself and lose its friends.

  8. avatar Gordon says:

    Fine, let’s agree to disagree. I just respond to correct an inaccuracy concerning your Berlin example. Berlin was not an ‘internal’ affair, like Libya. It was the threat of invasion and the established blockade by another power (USSR). West Berlin remained a military occupation zone until 3rd October 1990 under formal sovereignty of the allies. There is a contextual difference.

  9. avatar James Rogers says:

    Gordon: Yes, Berlin is different to Libya (or almost any other crisis) in a strict legal and contextual sense. But that is not really the point I was making. The point I was making was that the global order is sustained by a group of dominant states (France, the United Kingdom and the United States), who are exceptional in the sense that they sit outside the ‘law’. It is only because of this – and their willingness to uphold certain principles (albeit in certain cases) by force of arms when necessary – that some very brutal forces have been contained or defeated over the past two hundred years.

    In any case, I doubt we will agree on this. Thank you for your comments though.

  10. avatar Windthorst says:

    Thanks for your article, Mr Rogers.

    It’s an important issue, that you mentioned also economics. Being a German, I tend to the dry assumption that the German government took the position of the biggest agglomeration of its (prospective) customers, as always, added to some election maths concerning the coming state elections in southern Germany.

    Me, as a voter, would not complain about this. Exports are the reason why the German economy is in its shape and state, but I fear that the bill will be presented by the other bigger NATO allies for the consumed security one day in the future.

  11. avatar Patrick M says:

    The sad thing is, I think, more political then it is a problem of spending money in the military sector. I live in Germany and very often I do have the feeling that many people here don’t quite get geostrategic thinking and the ability to project power (that is to say, military power, everyone here is fine with ‘soft-power’) into other countries (I was going to ‘write far away regions’ until I realised that Libya is close enough for French planes to start not too far from here to carry out their missions there) might actually be important.

    There is a problem which I think also exists in other countries – though maybe in a different form – which is usually named Politikverdrossenheit. Like in other countries, people here are more interested in domestic affairs like the economy (though that has stoped being domestic sometime in the last century…), social security and the like since these things often have very direct implications for everyone. Yet all these issues are rather complicated and have lead many people to sort of get lost in the day to day dealings on that field, leading to the impression that in politics nothing gets done anyway. This leaves them thinking about the use of military power as something that costs (yet more of their) money and produces ugly pictures on television.

    So the Germany’s problems are much more basic than foreign policy. What we so urgently need is a leadership that is able to step up and explain to people why something is important and needs to be done even if it is unpopular. And in the long run, there are certain drawbacks to the way our political leadership is organised in general: People who work in the chancellor’s office and serve as counsel to the chancellor have to go through endless levels of local, state and federal party organisations – and on each level foreign policy or geostrategy aren’t exectly great to get elected to anything.

    A side note: There was a state-election on Sunday and I cannot but think that the German position on Libya was meant to appease voters there. At least for Mr. Westerwelles FDP, it didn’t work.