What happened to the ‘Blair doctrine’?
Published on by James Rogers
This morning, the former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, was interviewed by Andrew Marr for the aptly named Andrew Marr Show, a politically-focused programme on BBC One. The former premier discussed the problems with the Euro and the United Kingdom’s relation to the European Union. He also said something that has been increasingly downplayed over the past few years:
Take a step back. Look at the broad sweep of history. Because of the way the world is changing today – the size and power of China, India. You take a country like Indonesia today – we don’t know much about it here – but its economy is growing strongly; its [population is] three times the size of Germany. So in the long term future of the world, that European project of integration is going to go ahead – like it or not. And it’s important that we are part of that, because we as a country – sixty million people in a small island nation – if we want to exercise weight and influence we’ve got to do it through our alliances and one of those is the European Union.
He ended with the prophetic statement:
The rationale for European integration is not peace anymore. It’s power!
Four entwined arguments are clear here:
- The world is becoming less-and-less European, due to the rise of other countries like China, India, Indonesia, and so on;
- The United Kingdom must continue to exercise power in the wider world if liberty, essential rights and constitutional democracy are to be upheld;
- The only way Britons and other Europeans can do this is through European integration, by constituting a European superpower with sufficient mass to shape the world (in alliance with the United States);
- Europeans must accept that European integration is no longer about peace and internationalism, but is instead about exercising power.
Tony Blair is absolutely right. He made this case consistently during his premiership, an argument which grew in prominence and authority across the European Union. However, in recent years, this ‘Blair doctrine’ has been pushed back and diluted. Four forces are contributing to this doctrine’s marginalisation:
- The Financial Crisis has encouraged most Europeans to focus once again on themselves, rather than on their position in the outside world (which is just as important as the economy);
- An unholy alliance of pacifists, internationalists and nationalists has managed to hijack European integration over the past two years to dilute the ‘global Europe’ or ‘Europe as power’ discourse – a primary component of the ‘Blair doctrine’ – and replace it with a ‘normative Europe’ approach, that is to say, a European Union that eschews armed force and pursues ‘global governance’ and ‘global solutions’ to ‘common problems’ instead;
- The past two British governments – those of Gordon Brown and David Cameron – have lost or have little interest in the European project, so have not been active enough in pressing a constructive British perspective (i.e. a maritime, open, strategic and globally-focused Europe) on their continental allies;
- Germany – the exemplar of ‘normative Europe’ – has, through its own efforts, and because of British indifference, become increasingly influential, thereby contributing to the marginalisation of the British-inspired ‘global Europe’ perspective.
So how can we re-ignite the ‘Blair doctrine’?
- London must realise that Britain cannot make it on its own in the increasingly geopolitical world of the twenty-first century. The United Kingdom may emerge as the largest economic power in European Union by mid-century as Germany’s population declines – which will further contribute to the British position as the geopolitical and strategic anchor of Europe – but London will be even stronger if it can lead a powerful European bloc, a kind of reservoir of power it can draw on to bolster its own position on the planetary stage;
- Those of us who are inclined to a more mature and worldly understanding of international politics must become more assertive in our dealings with the pacifists and the ideological internationalists, whose fantasies and illusions will ultimately – should they succeed – draw Europeans down into a quagmire of powerlessness and apathy;
- European officials must be held to account: since the departure of Javier Solana, European foreign, security and military policy has lost its global, strategic and professional drive. Those of us who are supportive of the project of European integration should become more critical – constructively critical. As a starting point, we need to look at the use of language, which has been used to hide meaning and create vagueness. Consequentially, all European officials and speech-writers (and academics who write about European affairs) should read George Orwell’s Politics and the English Language. For example, let’s stop talking about ‘global players’, ‘common solutions’ and ‘global problems’ – all vague nonsense and cloudy euphemism, which in Orwell’s words ‘falls upon the facts like soft snow, blurring the outlines and covering up all the details’ – and let us hear more about ‘global powers’, ‘European interests’, and ‘threats to European security’!
All well, but this assertive Europe has to be established on the sovereignty of its citizens = democracy.
@Ralf Grahn: Certainly, it does! But any Europe needs to be established on the sovereignty of its citizens – Europeans – and that includes the current one!
But where is the European Hamilton with The Federalist Papers adapted to the 21st century?
This makes perfect sense of course. And the point on Germany’s unrealistic ‘normative Europe’ is very valid.
Yet what seems to be absent here is the issue of Europeans themselves (and especially the British) being so sceptic on any kind of European integration whatsoever. Even now many advocate a ‘return of powers’ from the EU, let alone integrating foreign policy and defence, which as it is now is very costly and not very efficient for Europe.
You can’t reignite it. It involves not being unserious for long enough to follow through on a policy, even when every party has an interest to see it through.
It’s dubious to plan grand policies on a level that still has no viable or clearly visible polity, in this case European Union or Europe per se.
And UK will not be a leading edge of this perceived new power drive because it has no Europe-wide legitimacy, being seen as the American special partner for far too long, and a traditional ‘spoiler’ in various Europe-as-a-polity efforts. And also because it has no capacity, economic or military, to lead the way.
@Joe: I fear you are right. Most Europeans just want to put their heads in the sand and hope the nasty outside world just passes them by.
@MI: Yes, the British do have a close relationship with the United States; they prefer a power who is prepared to act rather than shy away from conflict. As for your statements regarding Britain’s declining military capacity…well, events speak for themselves and would contradict you. Over the past thirty years, the United Kingdom has intervened in more conflicts than any other power other than the United States. Argentina’s Galtieri, Iraq’s Hussein, Serbia’s Milosevic, Afghanistan’s Taleban, Sierra Leone’s RUF, Libya’s Gaddafi…They were all crushed in no small part by British military power, either unilaterally or in alliance with others…And Britain is soon to gain two 65,000 tonne aircraft carriers, which will amplify Britain’s reach and clout – and deterring power – considerably.
@James Rogers: Well, I havent’t really stated that British power is declining, nor was it my point.
The operations that you have listed state that the United Kingdom is capable of acting (usually not alone nor as a meaningfull leader), but leaves the question of ‘being accepted as a standard-bearer’ unanswered. Having power to do something doesn’t guarantee a leadership position, especially not in Europe, and especially not for causes that are not perceived as a ‘clear and present danger’.
It is telling that this strategy marks Germany as its main inner oponent simply because Germany has no taste for offshore balancing and power projection in the Mackinderian style that are visible in the text. The same goes for the vast majority of continental Europe.
No, it was always about peace. You are completely wrong here. Repeat it, again and again: it is about P-E-A-C-E. Peace. Peace. Peace!
The European Union should turn into a big Switzerland instead of another United States. There is no desire in the German population for power or war. By the way it was your own mistake: after the Allied victory over Germany, the Allies decided to re-educate us Germans: Dismantlement, Denazification(!), demilitarisation(!), decentralisation(!) and democratisation(!).
In the end the West was right after all. War is really sucky. Tolerance is great. Fights are bad and words are superior. My country understood it. Ironically the pupil surpasses his master and carries on his will, while the master chose the wrong path and let his desires devour his morals and ethics. The West forgot its very own words and lectures.
There is still time to turn around and to save your souls, brother and sisters.
@MI: Well, the Falklands operation was undertaken exclusively by the United Kingdom. London sent 20,000 soldiers and sailors 13,000 kilometres into the South Atlantic and won. Not many countries – if any, bar the United States – could do that. I suppose, on your rationale, that because the United States included itself in a coalition in all the conflicts it fought since 1990 means that it too is unable to fight by itself…
@GermanView: Zzzzzzzz! Believe whatever you like…