The rise of the ‘Wider North’
Published on by James Rogers
In this month’s edition of RUSI Journal, I have had published an article – ‘Geopolitics and the “Wider North”’ – focusing on the rise of the ‘Wider North’, looking particularly at what the United Kingdom should do to maintain security in Northern Europe and the North-West Pacific, in alliance with countries like Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Baltic States, South Korea and Japan. If – as I pointed out four years ago – a geopolitically-integrated ‘crescent’ is fast emerging around the underbelly of Eurasia, something similar now seems to be happening in the North – which could literally turn the world on its head.
Climate change in leading to a ‘great thaw’ in the Arctic, which has the potential to permanently open up the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia and North-Western Europe for the first time in history. Even if this route is only navigable for five to seven months during the summer of each year by 2040, it will still be by far the shortest route connecting the industrialised ecumenes of Europe and Asia. It will cut thousands of kilometres from the maritime communication lines between the two regions, and leave Russia in a particularly advantageous situation.
I argue that the United Kingdom – as the strategic gatekeeper of the North Atlantic, and Europe’s pre-eminent power – is ideally suited to act as a ‘pivot state’ in this coming geopolitical saga. I assert that the British government must capitalise on its ‘Nordic drive’ over the coming years to extend its influence to cover other important countries in the Northern proximities, not least Japan and South Korea. By constituting a new geopolitical constellation – and then undergirding it – the United Kingdom could relieve the burden of the United States as its shifts its attention to the Far East. Indeed, a new geostrategic ‘pincer movement’ by the British and Americans, one from the Atlantic West and the other from the Pacific East, locking around Eurasia from Britain’s island citadel and America’s continental homeland, may serve to prevent a future conflagration similar to those in the last century, thus maintaining a peaceful, maritime – and liberal – world order, rather than one haunted by the repressive tendencies of autocratic continentalism.
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Sounds like a good read, but what would it take to cause Japan or ROK to reciprocate, and what institutional form would this ‘constellation’ take? What missions and tasks would it perform? It sounds like a little bit more than a theoretical option but much less than an alliance.
Philip Shetler-Jones: I think Japan and South Korea would readily get on board. I guess you saw Shinzo Abe’s article published in numerous media outlets the other day advocating that Japan should join the Five Powers Defence Arrangements and deepen relations with Britain and France?
As to the institutional arrangements of the Northern Group, these would remain flexible for the time being, underpinned by a small secretariat. We’re not yet in a position that mandates a large footprint in the Wider North – we simply need the infrastructure to create it should the situation become more volatile. But things like military exercises (like ‘Cold Response’) could easily be expanded, not only in their membership but also frequency and spatiality. More importantly, the United Kingdom should provide more support for the Northern powers’ armed forces; instigate more military exchange programmes; send more defence attachés; and enroll more students in Northern military colleges, and so on.
James, thanks! how did I miss Abe’s OpEd? Asleep at the wheel over the New Year. As for the United Kingdom extending its reach to the region, I was very struck by General Sir David Richards’ speech at RUSI where he talks about dedicating one of the country’s new ‘adaptable brigades’ to the Asian region. Is there a groundswell of commonly identified interest here, or am I imagining it? Some work to be done on the British side in seizing the opportunity I think. Also some work on the Asian side (Abe has begun) in getting Japan/South Korean relations back into a shape that could support this. How will Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia react I wonder? A good start to 2013!
Philip: Yes! It was very interesting how Abe’s article and Richards’ speech tied in with one another. I hope in 2015 we see London take military power more seriously again and increase military expenditure, boosting Britain’s geopolitical footprint and building new alliances with India, Japan and South Korea, among others. I hope we see Japan do the same: Tokyo should seek full integration into the Five Powers Defence Arrangements, which might even be enlarged further still.
I sense that the Australians, New Zealanders and Singaporeans will all support more British-French engagement in the region. They have all mentioned the Five Powers Defence Arrangements in their most recent security or military strategies. What is ultimately needed is a kind of maritime alliance led by Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the United States, with additional members like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. This could provide a security order to last a century and prevent any particular country from adopting a Wilhelmian approach.
I sense an historical opportunity fast approaching that we shall either sieze and prosper with, or overlook and fail. Let’s hope that this good start to 2013 is sustained!